What is still valid today can look like two different things tomorrow. Every project manager has to expect that there will be changes that manipulate a project more or less. Scenarios are ideas of what it might look like in that future. With the help of the technology of the same name, you can scientifically prosper such images of the future and prepare for changes.
In our companion we mark the method, yours Phases and donate examples of the software.
The scenario technique as a tool for that future analysis
People have always tried to anticipate the risks and uncertainties associated with that future in order to avoid wrong decisions. Subordinate to Project management be for this purpose Forecasting methods used to calculate possible future scenarios. One of these methods is the scenario technique.
Visually evoke possible scenarios and developments
It is not a crystal ball: C / o that scenario technique is not about predicting the future in as much detail as possible, but the various possible ones Developments and influencing factors to assemble into images of that future. Basically, the scenario technique answers the question: "What if ...?"
Representation of that method: A funnel up a timeline
The scenario technique, which comes from economics, sets up pictures. At the hands of the visualization of several alternative ideas of that future and those ways there becomes like zero in the context of that scenario technique lying funnel used.
Imagine that the current starting situation in the context of your project is that narrow part of the funnel. The point of view there is relatively bright and manageable. Now turn your gaze from the current state of that now to the widening part of the funnel, that future. The unforeseeable influences and developments naturally increase in the future, which is expressed in the growing radius of the funnel.
In order to be able to represent the diverse future scenarios, two extreme scenarios are usually used, namely the "Best case"(The best possible progression), that"Worst case"(The worst possible progress) as well as this so-called"Trend scenario“(An extension of those now). That trend scenario lies in the center of the funnel.
Scenario engineering phases: Be as possible before
In order to talk about the future of your project, the scenario technique is very effective. Bring in your Stakeholders first with a short, general introduction to the project and the purpose of the meeting.
Now start implementing those phases. Include the participants in the work on an ongoing basis, because their expertise can represent valuable input.
In Angle one present the concrete initial situation, problem and the objective of the project ACTUAL representation called. Specifically, walking pace one revolves around the questions: What is the project about, where are the challenges and what is the current situation?
Angle two Has Influencing factors and a Impact analysis Go to content. At this walking pace, the aim is to combine influencing factors and force their strengths up this project. Which promotes your project, which has an inhibitory effect? Examples would be price, human resources, and competitors. Prefer the influencing factors. A mind map is a simple and clear design of the visualization of those influencing factors and their relationships. Colored markings "warm = better" "cold = underlay" can help you to keep the structure clear.
In angle Three is it about To merge trends and parameters. You can now add specific figures, facts and figures to the prototype created in Winkel Zwei. If so, they are referred to as descriptors. The aim of this angle is to enrich this prototype with facts in such a way that a progress can be identified more than a linked time course. The data research required for this can be shortened by division of labor.
Angle four this is the core of that method. This is about them Scenario development. Based on the previous steps, you are now prospering in two extreme scenarios: a positive and a negative. The trend scenario is this “business as usual” scenario and is therefore less interesting in that scenario analysis than the other two. The presentation of those scenarios should be as eidetic as possible. Whether presentation, storytelling, short video, graphics or role play - anything that fits within the time frame is allowed.
In Angle five appraise The scenarios. Which are the most likely? Which are extremely unlikely? Establish a rigid order of precedence and force the scenarios with which you will continue to function in that last corner.
the last corner consists in Measures and activities derived from the probable scenarios. To do this, interpret the scenarios at hand while you find starting points to manipulate the outlined progress. What can and who can do specifically to promote progress in your interests?
Overview of scenario technology
Three ideal scenario techniques and their subgroups and combinations put out loud Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment the main part of that scenario methodology in that future research. The cause of the diversity is probably the increasing Range of objectives and functionsthat is supposed to take the technology down. We have put together the most important ones for you:
What scenario techniques are there?
- Trend extrapolations
- Most likely scenarios and referral scenarios
- Scientific-formalized scenario techniques
- Impact analysis
- Consistency analysis
- Cross-impact summary
- Creative-narrative scenario techniques
- Intuitive logics
- Morphological summary
- Normative-narrative scenarios
Scenario technology practical example: electromobility
With regard to the increased sensitivity compared to emissions, this renowned Fraunhofer Institute has dealt with the question: "Where is the automotive industry developing?" And various E-mobility scenarios worked out until 2025.
Above the situation analysis (diesel vehicles are sometimes no longer allowed in city centers), influencing factors (fuel and vehicle taxes are becoming more and more expensive) and trends (legislation is becoming more climate-friendly), the researchers developed four scenarios that represent the assumed progress.
The intersection of electromobility, urban mobility, modular electromobility and hydrogen-powered mobility are the most likely scenarios that the Fraunhofer social structure has developed.
More on scenario technology
Simulations represent another to the scenario technique, if you want to look into the future linked. C / o that pretense is about emulating that reality as close to reality as possible. By recognizing the essential, one becomes prototype that can be specifically experimented with. So the results from that pretense will transfer back up this real project.
Conclusion: Use this scenario technique to prepare strategically upward changes
Working with scenarios is a common way of doing Presentation of possible future versions. In that project work, it serves to provide a forward-looking decision-making aid, to assess paths and risks and to be able to deal with them constructively. Synchronously, the scenario technology promotes this networked thinking by anticipating changes. A challenge in the context of this scenario technique is to filter out those from countless possible scenarios that are most likely to come to fruition.
Cover photo: gradyreese / E + / Getty Images Plus
Originally published May 7, 2021, updated 07 May 2021[ad_2]
Original source Hubspot